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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd