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At an lavish speakeasy-style event hosted at Raffles establishment on Whitehall recently, prominent figures of what is left within Tory circles celebrated the Spectator’s parliamentarian of the year awards.

With the magazine’s editorial line continuing to support the Conservatives, even as they confront severe challenges from Reform UK, it was unsurprising that speculation swirled during the upscale reception was about whether Kemi Badenoch’s job was at risk.

Party Rivalries Emerge at Ceremony

One senior figure, a former leadership contender, made pointed remarks during his speech targeting the obvious aspirations of his shadow cabinet colleague, a key rival – who is Badenoch’s biggest threat.

“Am I after her job? Am I going to stick the knife between her shoulder blades and steal the crown? No, of course I’m not,” the veteran Tory cabinet minister informed the amused crowd as he opened the awards ceremony.

The runner-up from last year, and has been pitching sharply rightward to take on Nigel Farage, responded with humor. His own manoeuvres are far from discreet.

Countdown to Leadership Contest Begins

Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock online of the days left until Conservative rules allow rivals to mount a challenge. That period concludes this weekend.

At that point, opponents within the party will be able to submit letters to trigger a contest. The rules changed last year to increase the threshold, meaning 30% from parliamentary colleagues are now needed, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust her.

Possible Challengers and Support

Is it feasible for opponents – primarily Jenrick – persuade the 36 MPs required to start the process? Party sources reference previous nomination totals in the leadership contest: twenty-eight initially. “That forms the baseline,” they said.

There is no shortage of Tory MPs willing to share dissatisfaction with the leader: her approach, her decision-making, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they remain cautious about committing yet another act of political regicide so soon.

Respite and Poll Anxieties

Some Conservative MPs also believe the leader's conference address at the autumn party conference, announcing a policy to remove property tax on primary homes, secured her temporary relief.

“Although dissatisfied with the current leadership we will act cautiously regarding a change. The public already think we fight like rats in a sack. We should avoid providing any more evidence of that,” one MP said.

This doesn't mean the plotting is not under way. “Kemi has until May. The local elections are going to be cataclysmic for the party. No one will desire to assume leadership preemptively and bear responsibility. However, post-elections, we will need somebody capable of guiding in a new direction,” a frontbench source commented.

Survey Data and Public Opinion

Recent surveys indicate the leader has gained minimal ground with the public over the last year and that she has fallen in personal approval. With a negative score, her standing is lower than Jenrick (-16) and Mel Stride (-21), per recent polling.

Additional research further reveals that Badenoch has convinced just one in eight voters she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves with party supporters, with 54% saying they approve of her performance as party leader, and only 30% opposing her continuation the party into the next general election.

Upcoming Scenarios and Internal Strategies

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists within parliamentary ranks that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.

The main division is whether it would better to replace her in May to potentially halt the rival party's advance – or delay until nearer the election date when Farage might have imploded, and voters could be more willing to listen to the Tories again.

Widely known that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. But his allies say he won't act immediately, and is among those who thinks they should wait until spring.

Alternative Candidates and Approaches

Some speculate that a rescuer could emerge from less expected with a lower profile (the shadow climate secretary is sometimes suggested) or among newer MPs with less obvious links to previous governments.

Another former candidate, is also cited as a consensus builder, remaining reserved. Supporters indicate he thinks there is no alternative but to carry on with Badenoch, since a new leader immediately would inherit an even more difficult situation.

Should a race begin, there would undoubtedly be those urging Cleverly to stand, and he might reconsider to give it another shot. A small group of centrist MPs are already preparing a rearguard action to block the frontrunner from winning.

Rightward Movement and Electoral Considerations

An influential insider warned how the “energy is all on the right” both inside and outside the party, citing figures such as Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly given his experience and the relationship with members, while others oppose Jenrick completely.”

“Quite a lot of minds are on the need for a pact with the rival party eventually. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding assisted suicide and decriminalising abortion generated significant ‘we need to kick the people who voted for those out the party’ while Reform privately suggests Liberal Democrat sympathizers must go. This advantages in Robert’s favour a bit.”

However, another added: “The outcome remains a foregone conclusion. A competitive race between Jenrick and another – Cleverly, Stride. The assumption that conservatives always wins the membership may not hold true.”