🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."